NIE Report: Sabotage By Bureaucrats Hellbent On Revenge

One never has to wait too long for the truth to come to light, as we discover that the much heralded NIE Report on Iran’s nuclear weapons program was authored by political hacks (one who has a stated grudge against President Bush) who suddenly reversed what they said in 2005. The report announces a determination 4 years after the fact of Iran’s “supposed” halt of it’s program in the hidden bunkers of Tehran, waving aside their report from just two years ago that stated with urgency the exact opposite of what the NIE is saying now.

It once again goes to prove that the initial reaction many of us who are paying attention to Ahmadinejad’s statements, objectives and aspirations of this NIE report, were correct in our suspicions. The NIE report may be the biggest act of foreign policy sabotage in our history.

One only hopes this report will not be the fatal catalyst in the coming annihilation Ahmadinejad has repeatedly said Iran will initiate in order to bring about a global Caliphate and the return of his 12th Imam.

Politics in America however is a powerful drug – where the aspirations of power and control trump national security for appeasement’s sake, and it is no secret that the Intelligence Apparatus in Washington is waging their own ideological war. They failed us in thwarting 9-11 – and it looks like they will again fail us with whatever nuclear holocaust will spring upon us by Jihadists and their proxies.

UPDATE – Added this new info about one of the NIE report’s main authors:

NIE – An abrupt about face since July of 2007

Consider that on July 11, 2007, roughly four or so months prior to the most recent NIE’s publication, Deputy Director of Analysis Thomas Fingar gave the following testimony before the House Armed Services Committee:

Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons–despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.

This paragraph appeared under the subheading: “Iran Assessed As Determined to Develop Nuclear Weapons.” And the entirety of Fingar’s 22-page testimony was labeled “Information as of July 11, 2007.” No part of it is consistent with the latest NIE, in which our spooks tell us Iran suspended its covert nuclear weapons program in 2003 “primarily in response to international pressure” and they “do not know whether (Iran) currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.”

The inconsistencies are more troubling when we realize that, according to the Wall Street Journal, Thomas Fingar is one of the three officials who were responsible for crafting the latest NIE. The Journal cites “an intelligence source” as describing Fingar and his two colleagues as “hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials.” (The New York Sun drew attention to one of Fingar’s colleagues yesterday.)

So, if it is true that Dr. Fingar played a leading role in crafting this latest NIE, then we are left with serious questions:

Why did your opinion change so drastically in just four months time?
Is the new intelligence or analysis really that good? Is it good enough to overturn your previous assessments? Or, has it never really been good enough to make a definitive assessment at all?
Did your political or ideological leanings, or your policy preferences, or those of your colleagues, influence your opinion in any way?

Of course no one in the mainstream media will ask these questions, nor will the bulk of Americans even care to consider these questions. They hear the smooth and easy words they want to hear: Bush is bad, Iran is no threat.

This is the mantra of the Left and the Anti-war brigades – so it should not be surprising that political ideologues in our intelligence community are also playing politics with this football – unfortunately they grant our Jihadist enemies with grand schemes of global domination the victory – which Ahmadinejad has declared today.

Iran declares victory after U.S. nuclear report

“Today, the Iranian nation is victorious but you (the United States) are empty-handed,” Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech to a rally in the western Iranian city of Ilam.

I’d call it treason – but no one else will.

The NIE Report Authored By Political Hacks With An Agenda

The Wall Street Journal editorial that ran this morning echoes and expands upon suspicions first articulated by the New York Sun that the National Intelligence Estimate was cooked up by bureaucrats eager to embarrass George Bush and transform US policy towards Iran.

A dynamic is at work that will serve Iranian interests by throwing a wrench in plans to expand sanctions against it for its nuclear program; it also will serve to veto any plans to attack its nuclear facilities.

The three main authors of this report are former State Department officials with previous reputations that should lead one to doubt their conclusions. All three are ex-bureaucrats who, as is generally true of State Department types, favor endless rounds of negotiation and “diplomacy” and oppose confrontation. These three officials, according to the Wall Street Journal, have “reputations as hyper-partisan anti-Bush officials”.
They are Tom Fingar, formerly of the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research; Vann Van Diepen, the National Intelligence Officer for WMD; and Kenneth Brill, the former U.S. Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Tom Fingar was a State Department employee who was an expert on China and Germany — he has no notable experience, according to his bio in the Middle East and its geopolitics.
Vann http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2007/12/the_suspect_provenance_of_the.html is also a career State Department bureaucrat who, according to the New York Sun, is one of the State Department bureaucrats who want “revenge” for having their views regarding Iran ignored by the Bush Administration. He is now seeking to further his own agenda. As the Sun wrote in their editorial yesterday:
Vann Van Diepen, one of the estimate’s main authors, has spent the last five years trying to get America to accept Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Mr. Van Diepen no doubt reckons that in helping push the estimate through the system, he has succeeded in influencing the policy debate in Washington. The bureaucrats may even think they are stopping another war.
Vann Diepen also shares a lack of experience in dealing with Iran or the region.

The third main author comes in for particular criticism in the Wall Street Journal editorial. Kenneth Brill served as the US Ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency (the IAEA). This is an agency that has served to enable Iranian’s quest for nuclear weapons. The head of the IAEA, Mohammed ElBaradei, has even been called a friend by the Iranian regime. As he should be, for he has been an enabler of its nuclear weapons program and has stiff-armed European Union diplomats who have worked to restrain Iran.

Elbaredei and the IAEA have over-reached and now seek to control diplomatic negotiations with Iran — a function that is beyond its mandate. Brill was apparently unwilling to stop this mission creep and put an end to Elbaradei’s efforts to help Iran. Or, as the Wall Street Journal hints, maybe he was just incompetent. This hint comes from former US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton’s (who headed counter-proliferation efforts in the State Department previous to his UN posting) new book:
For a flavor of their political outlook, former Bush Administration antiproliferation official John Bolton recalls in his recent memoir that then-Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage “described Brill’s efforts in Vienna, or lack thereof, as ‘bull — .'” Mr. Brill was “retired” from the State Department by Colin Powell before being rehired, over considerable internal and public protest, as head of the National Counter-Proliferation Center by then-National Intelligence Director John Negroponte.
Brill also has no previous history of experience dealing with Iran. (He graduated from Business School at Berkeley in 1973!).

All three of the authors of this NIE study are former State Department employees (none of them are nuclear physicists). All who are familiar with the ways of Washington know that the State Department is a fourth branch of government — at least in its own collective mind — that seeks to forge its own policies which may often conflict with the policies desired by its putative boss, the President. Washington being Washington, this desire can manifest itself in ways fair and foul .

As the Bush Administration winds down to its conclusion, perhaps these three authors are angling for positions in the new Administration (presumably a Democratic one). They may hope to be rewarded for their “analysis” since Democrats are already using this report for partisan gain.

We have three State Department flexing their muscles to derail our policy towards Iran. This has apparently had a ripple effect, as our allies have expressed a belief that this NIE report will stop efforts to enact a new round of sanctions against Iran. Who gains? Iran.

This is one more step that will be noted in the future that enabled Iran to develop a nuclear arsenal.*

* Recent reports, by Kenneth Timmerman and others, indicate that a single human source may be responsible for the conclusions of the NIE. This would probably be a former aide to the Iranian defense minister and a retired general with long service in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard (recently categorized as a terrorist entity) who disappeared in Europe earlier in the year.

One should recall the notorious Curveball — also a human source — whose “stories” led the CIA to conclude that Iraq had an active WMD program. Curveball lied and our use of him for intelligence has been widely castigated. Are we relying now on an Iranian with a long history of service to the Iran Revolutionary Guard for our intelligence? Could he be a plant to distort our intelligence? Has history repeated itself as a farce and as a tragedy?

The War the Intelligence Community is Waging on America

The proper way to read this report is through the lens of the long struggle the professional intelligence community has been waging against the elected civilian administration in Washington. They have opposed President Bush on nearly every major policy decision. They were against the Iraqi National Congress. They were against elections in Iraq. They were against I. Lewis Libby. They are against a tough line on Iran.

One could call all this revenge of the bureaucrats. Vann Van Diepen, one of the estimate’s main authors, has spent the last five years trying to get America to accept Iran’s right to enrich uranium. Mr. Van Diepen no doubt reckons that in helping push the estimate through the system, he has succeeded in influencing the policy debate in Washington. The bureaucrats may even think they are stopping another war.

It’s a dangerous game that may boomerang, making a war with Iran more likely.

…So much for diplomatic pressure in the run up before the mullahs have their bomb. And so the options for preventing the Islamic Republic from going nuclear get progressively more narrow. What it means is that when the historians look back on this period, they will see that by sabotaging our diplomacy, our intelligence analysts have clarified the choice before the free world — appeasement or war.

14 Comments

Filed under News, Politics, War On Jihadists

14 responses to “NIE Report: Sabotage By Bureaucrats Hellbent On Revenge

  1. afterehcoes

    i want my war .. i want my war.. whaaaaaahh!!!!

  2. invar

    No IDIOT. No sane person wants war, but at the same time – some of us do not want experience another 9-11 or worse at the hands of those who are promising it.

    You obviously did not read the provided articles because like all imbeciles, the facts and arguments are not as important as your insistance that those questioning the details and motives of the NIE are nothing but warmongers.

    How typical.

    You from MoveOn.org – Code Pink or the Ron Paul Mob Zombies?

    That’d be my guess.

  3. pacificaharry

    Consider myself a skeptic here with the contents of the article. While being a hawk myself, I find it hard to believe that the leadership of the intel community would let any potential hyper partisan to write “fiction” without triple checking facts and sources. It just seems to be too much of a leap for me to believe that all the intel services (16) of them didn’t analyze the same input and come out with the same data? While nothing would astound me these days with anti bush syndrome, I can not for the life of me believe the admin and all the intel agencies couldn’t find the “truth” if the NIE was in fact some political hack job. I would also assume that the authors of the 2005 would be able to refute the new NIE, since it goes back to 2003. If the new NIE believed Iran suspended their program in 2006, then it would be harder to prove, but since they said it was suspended all the way back to 2003, its much hard to fudge the intel because more people were involved than these three folks. It just doesn’t pass the smell test.

  4. invar

    Here’s what does NOT pass the smell test about the political hacks who wrote the latest NIE assessment:

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2007/12/nie_an_abrupt_aboutface.asp

    WHY did Dr. Fingar change his mind about Iran from what he said THIS PAST JULY to what he says now this week??

    What was the criteria??

    And why did Ahmadinejad just declare victory for his program??

  5. afterehcoes

    so lets just nuke em… gdammit… just nuke em!!!

  6. invar

    Sadly, there’s a time coming in our not-too-distant future when many Americans are going to wish that we did when we had the chance.

    But by then, it will be too late – and the game will be over…for us.

  7. afterehcoes

    against my better judgment i am going to attempt to teach you something…

    sigh….

    you probalby have never traveled outside the United States. never talked with someone on the far side of the world. never seen the variety of cultures, faiths and human beings that span the globe for who they are.

    the common man around the wolrd wakes up in the morning, gives thanks to whatever god(s) he believes in, sets out upon the course of making a living, or gathering sustinance for his family, laughs with his friends, loves life and family, and exists in a small dimension of this world in peace.

    sometimes he hears of the “evil ones” and those who hate him in far off lands. he may sip his coffee or tea beneath the desert sands, lush tropical jungle canopy, or gather in a mosque a church or synogog and pray for peace…. sometimes he is angry at those so far away… mostly…. he just goes to sleep … and dreams of working, fishing, hunting, gathering, and sex with his wife…..

    he not afraid of your judgement
    he knows of horrors worse than your hell
    he’s a little bit afraid of dying…
    but he’s alot more afraid of your lying….
    (neil peart- rush)

    as a FORMER neocon I have thought all those evil thoughts myself… longed to pick up the pitchfork and light the torches of MY CHRISTIAN FAITH… and in the name of the good ole red white and blue.

    and I think about some more words from Neil and Rush….

    They say there are strangers who threaten us
    In our immigrants and infidels
    They say there is strangeness too dangerous
    In our theaters and bookstore shelves
    That those who know what’s best for us
    Must rise and save us from ourselves

    Quick to judge
    Quick to anger
    Slow to understand
    Ignorance and prejudice
    And fear walk hand in hand…

    Yes it is a terrible thing to live in FEAR.

    I do not!

  8. invar

    you probalby have never traveled outside the United States.

    You would be wrong.

    never talked with someone on the far side of the world.

    Wrong again.

    never seen the variety of cultures, faiths and human beings that span the globe for who they are.

    Wrong yet again.

    the common man around the wolrd wakes up in the morning, gives thanks to whatever god(s) he believes in, sets out upon the course of making a living, or gathering sustinance for his family, laughs with his friends, loves life and family, and exists in a small dimension of this world in peace.

    I’ll assume Kumbahyah is in your skull at all times.

    What’s it like to live in fantasyland?

    There are ‘common men’, who wake up – face Mecca, pray five times a day and ask their god for a chance to die for his glory by killing infidels and give sermons to millions upon millions in explaining to them the glories of martyrdom.

    There are those who wake up and do all you say – and then meet up with other men of power to discuss what they can do to harm or hurt America.

    But people like you want clear thinking Americans to buy into the absurd notion that the only reason any evil exists in the world, is because we bad -eeevil American neocons – made them mad at us.

    You may not walk in fear – but you’re a walking victim just waiting to happen.

    as a FORMER neocon I have thought all those evil thoughts myself… longed to pick up the pitchfork and light the torches of MY CHRISTIAN FAITH… and in the name of the good ole red white and blue.

    Hooray for you.

    But somehow, I sense you are lying.

  9. afterehcoes

    easy to cut at me with your sword….. i am a nobody.

    would you dare strike at one so great?


    Nonviolence and cowardice are contradictory terms. Nonviolence is the greatest virtue, cowardice the greatest vice. Nonviolence springs from love, cowardice from hate. Nonviolence always suffers, cowardice would always inflict suffering. Perfect nonviolence is the highest bravery. Nonviolent conduct is never demoralizing, cowardice always is.

    Ghandi

  10. invar

    Your definition of “great” and mine are decidedly different.

    I do not share Ghandi’s religious beliefs, his pacifism or his nation, and do not agree with his sentiments.

    I enjoy his nation’s food and their people’s culture – but it ends at their application of Hindu belief and practice.

    But I’ll counter your favored quote with one of mine:

    “War is an ugly thing but not the ugliest of things; the decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feelings which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.” – John Stuart Mill

    In short, if nothing is worth war to you, you believe that nothing is worth fighting for. Truly an ugly thing.

  11. drewski

    If you do not accept the findings of the NIE (16 separate agencies of which 9 represent the military) then whose opinions do you accept — the luminaries at Fox News and The Weekly Standard? Or, perhaps, we should base our foreign policy on the opinions of Israel. But to accept that the NIE is somehow manipulating its findings — and making America more vulnerable — to satisfy some imagined grudge against our President leaves me flabbergasted and wondering about the common sense of those who make such claims.

  12. invar

    It’s funny that when the NIE was reporting what a threat Iran was, everyone was calling them “puppets” of the Bush Administration or the “Jew lobby”.

    Now that 3 partisan ideologue hacks wrote a sudden and complete 180 degree turn from what they assessed in July – you people think they are gods.

    Frankly – I don’t give a damn what the NIE says or does not say.

    Ahmadinejad’s own words reveal what he intends to do, and the actions follow those words.

    You do not need 3,000 centrifuges to create nuclear rod fuel for a power plant.

    You only need that many gas centrifuges and more if you intend to weaponize the uranium for a nuclear warhead.

    Some are simply too blinded by Bush hatred to recognize a clear and present danger, then if we actually do see a double sunrise over some American city – you same nitwits will blame Bush for not protecting you.

  13. drewski

    So you believe that 3 partisan hacks subverted the considered opinion of 16 spy agencies whose agents represent the front line of defense of our country — correct? If so, I would consider that treasonous — so where is the outrage from the generals and admirals and others who have actual experience in the field? Who exactly (please no generalities) labeled the previous NIE reports as generated by puppets of the Bush administration? I don’t know — how many gas centriguges does it take to create fuel for nuclear power plants? Why isn’t Iran, who has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and who has allowed inspectors into their facilities and who, by the way, helped America overthrow the Taliban, allowed the same nuclear rights as every other country that signed the treaty?
    My personal opinion is that expanding the war to include Iran will outrage so many muslim and non-muslims, friendly and not-so-friendly countries throughout the world that America will be unable to deal with the consequences. Any shiite friends we still have in Iraq will actively turn against us, the Taliban will now be actively supported by Iran and Pakistan and Europe will recoil in horror. Plus, it is likely Hizbollah and Syria will use this distraction to take advantage in Lebenon as Turkey will do against the Kurds in northern Iraq. What we need now are cool heads.

  14. invar

    So you believe that 3 partisan hacks subverted the considered opinion of 16 spy agencies whose agents represent the front line of defense of our country

    http://www.newsmax.com/timmerman/NIE_iran_hoekstra/2007/12/06/55273.html

    http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=DFA7A7FC-E9F4-4CBE-B05C-F4A9B0B7C58A

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=59120

    http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/4759

    http://www.jihadwatch.org/archives/019052.php#more

    Who exactly (please no generalities) labeled the previous NIE reports as generated by puppets of the Bush administration?

    Start with Harry Reid and work your way on down through the entire Democrat ranks and the Anti-war movment, including the wonderful folks at MoveOn.org who gave us the General Betray Us ad.

    I don’t know — how many gas centriguges does it take to create fuel for nuclear power plants?

    164 if using 20 year old standard gas centrifuge technology. That is enough to produce unlimited low grade reactor fuel for a standard electric power plant.

    In 2006, Iran announced it had enriched fuel-grade uranium for reactor use, and it did not have the centrifuges it has now.

    In April of 2007, Iran announced it had 3,000 gas centrifuges working with the goal of 50,000 by the end of next year. Thousands of gas centrigfuges are for the purpose of making High-Grade enriched Uranium or Plutonium for weapons. 50,000 gas centrifuges would allow Iran to manufacture 10-15 thermonuclear warheads a year.

    Why isn’t Iran, who has signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty and who has allowed inspectors into their facilities and who

    That’s a lie. One you are obviously happy to repeat:

    http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5jIvS1R4XoIkUK4tFo-5Ao5WHWcEg

    http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/04/30/iran.nuclear/index.html

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6304575.stm

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1142922.ece

    by the way, helped America overthrow the Taliban

    Are you on the Propaganda Ping List for Ahmadinejad???

    ONE Iranian Revolutionary Guard General whose credentials are bullshit at best made that claim that has since been DEBUNKED.

    Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said at the time there was “no knowledge of (Iranian) assistance” of the Northern Alliance.

    Since then, Iran has been AIDING the Taliban in A’stan: “Iran gives Taliban hi-tech weapons to fight British”

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article2199281.ece

    My personal opinion…

    Is exactly that, and has no weight as far as I’m concerned.

    What we need now are cool heads.

    Right. Iran is dancing at our defeat, declaring victory, telling their people that our annihilation is inevitable and imminent – and you want us to remain calm and pretend there is no threat.

    Not everyone is as stupid and gullible as you want us to be.

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